Data is shown as circles, dashed lines in all figures indicate the median across 1000 simulations, and grey shaded regions indicate uncertainty bounds. Hover over plots to see data values and interactive menu, and scroll down to see additional plots.
Current Summary
Note that the model is a work in progress and being updated as the epidemic progresses. Because we are still making improvements and including new data in the model, these results are highly preliminary and uncertain. The forecasts shown here also do not account for the ongoing changes in social distancing occurring over the coming weeks. For more on social distancing, see the ‘Scenarios’ tab.
For more information about the transmission model and methods, please see the ‘About this model’ tab.
In-progress, will be updated soon!
In-progress, will be updated soon. Outline below.
Overview This transmission model has been developed to assist in understanding and forecasting epidemic spread and hospital resource needs, and to explore and examine alternative scenarios (see scenarios tab). The model is calibrated based on Michigan data on COVID-19 testing and demographics, as well as Michigan and other literature data on disease progression, severity, mortality, etc.
The University of Michigan Epimath COVID-19 Modeling group is comprised of:
Questions? Please contact Marisa Eisenberg (marisae@umich.edu), Andrew Brouwer (brouweaf@umich.edu), and Josh Petrie (jpetrie@umich.edu) for more information.